Rates on Hold, Eyes on September: What It Means for Buyers and Sellers

By Ron Alfred De Guzman, MaxWell Realty Insights | August 07, 2026

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on July 15. It was the sixth consecutive hold since the Bank cut to this level last October. The decision came alongside firmer second-quarter growth and inflation trending toward target. That combination is giving the housing market something it has not had much of this year: a stretch of predictability.

Why the Bank Held

Governor Tiff Macklem framed the decision around three points. Economic growth has resumed after a flat start to the year. Inflation should ease gradually if energy prices settle. Uncertainty remains elevated with ongoing Middle East tensions and Canada-US trade talks. Headline inflation actually came in hot, with CPI rising to 3.2% in May. The Bank is looking through that number, treating it as largely energy-driven rather than a sign of runaway demand.

What a Hold Actually Means for You

For anyone with a variable-rate mortgage or line of credit, nothing changes today. Bank prime rates stayed at 4.45%. Fixed rates are a different story. They track Government of Canada bond yields rather than the policy rate directly, so they can still drift while the Bank stays on the sidelines. As of mid-July, five-year fixed rates were trading close to 3.99 to 4.04%. Five-year variable rates were hovering in the 3.35 to 3.55% range.

The bigger takeaway is timing. The next rate announcement lands September 2. That gives buyers, sellers, and anyone approaching a mortgage renewal roughly seven weeks of a known rate environment. Mortgage pre-approvals stay valid. The qualifying stress test does not shift underneath anyone mid-search. It is a meaningful window to shop lenders, lock in a rate hold, or finish preparing a listing without worrying about the ground moving.

A Market Already Responding

The hold has landed alongside genuine signs of life in the housing market. One national mortgage brokerage reported a close to 60% jump in home purchases this spring. Buyers grew tired of trying to time the market and instead took advantage of stable prices while rates held steady. Housing activity has been strong enough to contribute positively to Canada's GDP figures for May.

Most economists expect the Bank to hold again on September 2, though a small hike remains a live possibility if energy-driven inflation persists. Either way, the six-week gap between decisions is being treated less as a countdown and more as a planning window.

What This Means Heading Into Fall

A rate hold will not solve every affordability question on its own, but predictability has value. Buyers who have been waiting for certainty now have a defined stretch to move with confidence. Sellers preparing to list this fall can point to a stable rate backdrop as one less thing standing between a buyer and an offer.

If you are weighing a purchase, a renewal, or a fall listing, this is a good moment to have that conversation before the September decision resets the clock. Your MaxWell REALTOR® can help you think through timing in your specific market.

Sources: Bank of Canada, True North Mortgage, Mortgages for Less, Pegasus Mortgage Lending